SPINNING THE
INTELLIGENCE FOR POLITICAL EXPEDIENCY
by A. E. SOUAIAIA
Given the rising
death toll, the deteriorating security situation in Iraq, and the
vanishing confidence in international mechanisms for solving
serious problems--which were all due to this US administration's
decision to go to war in Iraq; I can't give Bush any positive
marks. However, after deliberation, I felt compelled to give him
and his campaign management team a credit for taking and
indefensible achievements record and turning it into a winner. We
are being led to believe that all the problems that this
administration has generated by the illegal invasion of Iraq dwarf
before the accomplishments in the "war on terror". Even when
President Bush shows clear double standard concerning a critical
matter, the spin team seems to be able to set the record
"straight" in record time.
Most recently, leaked information
about the content of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that
is contradictory to the claims of by the administration was
dismissed by the President himself when he qualified it as
"guesswork". When he was asked by a journalist about that
statement, President Bush declared:
Listen, the other day I was
asked about the National Intelligence Estimate, which is a
national intelligence estimate. This is a report that talks
about possibilities about what can happen in Iraq, not
probabilities. I used an unfortunate word, guess. I should have
used, estimate. And the CIA came and said, this is a
possibility, this is a possibility, and this a possibility. But
what's important for the American people to hear is reality.
Contrary to the circular definition provided by
the President above, the public should be reminded that the NIE is
not trivial report written by office bureaucrats who are cut off
from reality. In fact, writing the NIE is the one single
occasion when the Central Intelligence Agency pulls together the
assessments of all the myriad intelligence departments and
compares notes if you will. Generally, NIEs are produced
annually. Sometimes, the CIA could be asked to produce some sort
of a special NIE upon the request of the executive branch
especially.
For instance, after the 9/11 attacks and while
contemplating an appropriate response, a report titled "Iraq'
Continuing Program for Weapons of Mass Destruction" was produced.
It was requested to assist the President in deciding whether or
not to go to war. Obviously, a decision on war and peace must be
well informed and must be deliberate. However, we now learn (Story
in New York Times, July 14, 2004) that the President ordered only
one single page instead of the 93 pages document. Incidentally,
the President and the CIA have refused to share that page with the
Senate Commission that investigated 9/11 and have since refused to
share it with the media and other investigative bodies.
It seems to me that the President wants to have
it both ways: argue that the decision to go to war in Iraq was
based on sound intelligence; hence, it was legal and politically justified
under the pretext of protecting the American citizens from an
eminent danger (based on the one page summary of the October 2002
NIE). But now he sees the 2004 NIE as merely "guesswork". It
should be noted that a review of the 2002 NIE found widespread
intelligence failures that led to what we now know as erroneous
assumptions that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction.
A number of important questions emerge in the
light of these facts. For example, one ought to ask why did the
President rely on only one page of the 2002 NIE that justified
war? and why does he refuse to accept and act on the "estimates"
to the 2004 NIE?
Underneath all the spin work, the answer to
these questions is simple: the President has demonstrated on
numerous occasions that he will see things the way he wants them
to be. At one point he wanted to see Saddam as a threat and all
that he needed then was one page to support his "belief". Now,
however, and in the face of stagnant economy at home and in the
face of dimming hope for his vision of a democratic Greater Middle
East during an election year; he finds it necessary to emphasize
the achievements in order to convince the American voters to keep
him on the job for four more years. When this NIE contained
"estimates" that are contradictory to his claims of success, he
figured that he should shoot the messenger and label the report as
"guesswork".
What seems to be skipping the President's mind
is the fact that by admitting to the "guesswork" nature of any NIE,
he is automatically admitting that he went to work on shaky
ground, if not on an illegal basis. A decision that has cost Americans $200 billion, the death
of 59 soldiers every month (considering the official figure of
1020 deaths since the war until now), 445 wounded troops monthly, and the
loss of moral and political capital of the USA in the world. A
decision that has cost the Iraqis 2778 lives per month since the
start of the war and has put
Iraq on a path to anarchy or civil war. A decision that has
established a dangerous precedent for tyrants to act outside the
norms of international law and that has launched an armament race
when more food, medicine and books (education) are compelling necessities in
most countries around the world.
During an election year, every candidate might
be granted some leeway in order to portray oneself in a positive
light and brag about his or her achievements during the first term
in office. However, when important documents are manipulated for the
purpose of political expedience, and when those documents were (are)
the basis for making a decision that virtually places the lives of
tens of thousands of people at risk; it is utterly irresponsible
to continue to rely on spin master to "explain" policies, actions,
or inaction in the face of overwhelming evidence.
